This is a natural gas (or methane) molecule.
 

 
Without it, our society would likely collapse. As you know, the vast majority of us use it to heat our homes. In Alberta, 40% of our electricity comes from natural gas generation. It's used to make the fertilizer that helps to put food on our table. It is also used in the manufacture of fabrics, glass, steel, plastics, paint, and other products. It is so important to our lives that if its price rose substantially, it would have the potential to cause a widespread recession.
 
If you're a careful reader of the Red Deer Advocate, you may have noticed a year or two ago that we only have ten years worth of proven reserves of natural gas left in Canada. (This was when the Canadian Society for Unconventional Gas was here, talking about coal bed methane).
 
That scared me a bit, so I started doing some research. Unfortunately, at this point, I'm still scared.
 
The graph below shows how much natural gas the various regions of the world have left.
 
Note: all graphs following are clickable to direct you to the original source.
 

 

 

 
As you can see, North America's not in a very good spot right now. The graph confirms that we have about 10 years of supply left.
 
But the Middle East has lots. Couldn't we just import a bunch? Unfortunately, it's impossible to put natural gas lines under the oceans. It can be exported overseas, but only in relatively tiny amounts as LNG or "liquified natural gas". As the map below shows, there is some LNG being bought and sold, but it's very expensive. There are only four LNG terminal in the USA, and one ship holds enough natural gas to supply our energy hungry neighbour for one whole hour. The ships are also an superb terrorist target due to their explosive potential (one ship equal to 55 Hiroshima sized bombs).
 

 

 

 
The map also dramatically illustrates how addicted Uncle Sam is to our supplies. We export about 1/2 of our production to the US.
 
Alberta's official position on this is that we have lots and lots of natural gas. They base this on the notion that we could simply turn off the taps to not only the US, but also to the other provinces. Could we? Would we? Notwithstanding the bumper stickers that we used to see 25 years ago, I really don't think we would allow the other provinces to freeze in the dark. And I think that the reaction from Uncle Sam would be rather unpleasant.
 
We do discover more gas each year. That's another reason that our provincial government gives for being relaxed on the issue. However, we're starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel. Just look at the graph below. Each year, we drill more and more wells, but each year, we're getting less and less from each well.
 

 

 

 
What do you suppose that does to the price of natural gas? Do you remember what your gas bill was like five or ten years ago? Take a look below. Look what happened in 2001. The supply of gas was unable to match the demand, so prices started to shoot up.
 

 


 
Now try to imagine what's going to happen when the supply not only flatlines, but starts to seriously decline (see the next graph, where Alberta's production starts to nosedive). How high do you think the price might get? At some point, will our gas bills climb higher than our mortgage payments? At some point, will we have to start herding people into gymnasiums?
 
What about coal bed methane? What about the tar sands? Surely they'll arrive just at the last minute to save us.
 
Unfortunately, no. The tar sands have a very dismal energy balance. Just type "tar sands" and "eroei" (or energy returned on energy invested) into Google and you'll see what I mean. It may help to heat our homes, but it'll be astronomically expensive compared to the cheap natural gas we've always known. Besides, the tar sands use natural gas to get the oil out of the sand in the first place.
 
As for coal bed methane (CBM), take a look at the graph below. It will supply an appreciable amount, but -- as the dollar signs indicate -- it will be very expensive stuff and there won't be a lot of it to go around. The Canadian Society for Unconventional Gas states that coal bed methane could supply "up to approximately 10% of Canada’s current natural gas production" [italics mine].
 
And what about the McKenzie Valley Pipeline ("territories" in the graph below)? Industry insiders say that it will simply be used to process the tar sands and nothing else. Others are worried that the pipeline may never be built because the accelerating meltdown of the permafrost will not allow a firm enough foundation to lay any sort of pipeline.
 

 

 
And another scary graph, this one much more recent (2008) that shows how actual production (in brown) is starting to slide...even with very high prices. The graph was made by Ben Kenney, a Phd student, whose website is thewatt.com
 

 
So what can Red Deer do about it?
 
Unfortunately, there are very few easy answers.
 
Fortunately, there are a LOT of not-so-easy answers.
 
Unfortunately, there are a lot of problems that don't even have not-so-easy answers.
 
An example of an easy answer would be to stipulate that all new buildings in Red Deer should be R-2000 compliant. (Actually, we should've done that ten years ago).
 
An example of a not-so-easy answer would be to say that we should have more world-class subdivisions like Drake Landing in Okotoks. Even though it's world-class and mostly solar powered, translating it here would likely involve a few hiccups -- but certainly nothing insurmountable.
 
An example of a problem that doesn't even have a not-so-easy answer is how we're going to deal with the vast majority of existing housing in Red Deer -- a lot of which has only mediocre energy efficiency. What sort of retrofits are available? Will some solutions -- like geothermal heating -- be neighbourhood based? How should the city be involved?
 
The problems are compounded when you realize that when natural gas prices start to skyrocket, the entire North American economy will start to contract. And when the former Chairman of US Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan gets nervous, you can bet the farm that something's not quite right.
 
It's my view that we should take a proactive stance on this issue. The existing paradigm of politicians, planners and developers working behind closed doors -- with the occasional open house -- will no longer work in a rapidly changing world. We can't just extrapolate past trends and hope that that's what the future will bring (ie, what the city has done with their much vaunted Future Directions: Red Deer at 300,000). We need to educate ourselves on the likely trends that could negatively affect us. And then we need to educate ourselves on what we can do about it. We should also look at what other jurisdictions have done.
 
Okotoks has made vast strides in energy efficiency.
 
The city of Portland, Oregon has recognized that the days of cheap, North American energy are over and it is now basing policy on that recognition. This is particularly good news, since Red Deer won't have to completely reinvent the wheel. We can look at what they've done and then adapt it for our own particular situation.
 
Finally, we should look at what our vast, sprawling neighbour to the south has done, and NOT do it.
 
I've used the word "we" very deliberately. "We" includes us, the citizenry.
 
It includes our stakeholder representatives, ranging from politicians to the Chamber of Commerce to high school principals to environmental groups.
 
And it includes technical experts, ranging from a petroleum engineering professor at one of Alberta's universities, to the geothermal plumbing contractor that just might live next door to you.
 

 

 

 
I propose that we hold one or more large Stakeholder Conferences on this matter. Scores or hundreds of people would meet over several days to share their knowledge and come up with creative solutions. This has proven advantageous in the past. Click here to see the multitude of businesses, communities and associations that have decided to tackle the uncertainties of the future in a proactive manner. We can do the same.
 

 

 

 
What constitutes a stakeholder? According to the people at Future Search -- who have been facilitating these conferences since the 1960's -- a stakeholder can be a) someone with relevant information, b) someone with the authority and resources to get things done, or c) someone affected by what happens. Potential stakeholder groups are listed below.
 

 
But this process is not only for the hundred or so carefully selected stakeholders. The population of Red Deer as a whole can get involved via the internet and the media. In addition to the coverage that the conventional media would provide, Shaw Community Cable has a mandate to broadcast items of interest on their community channel. And a dedicated website would be set up to cover the conference (sort of like our own Youtube) and solicit feedback from the citizenry. Finally, the folks at Future Search are dedicated to training existing, local facilitators. This way, the process can become an ongoing, homegrown method of adapting to other uncertainties in our future.
 
There is a potential economic advantage to this public process. Joe/Jane Doe will become a bit more inclined to spend their extra money on something like extra insulation in the attic (instead of the latest plasma TV, for example). This is not only better for our regional energy situation, but by putting more money in the hands of local contractors (instead of big box stores and Chinese manufacturers), Joe/Jane would help to ensure that local money circulates locally for a longer period of time.
 
What will be the result of all this? Nobody knows. But there are three things that are certain. First: it will be a much more transparent process than what we have now. Second: it will bring a more sustainable solution to the problem than the business-as-usual Red Deer at 300,000 (which doesn't even acknowledge the issue). Third: it will build community ties. Joe/Jane Doe will become a bit less interested in what's going on in Hollywood, and a bit more interested in what's going on in Red Deer. That alone might just be worth the whole process.
 
And the strengthening of community ties is vitally important -- not only today, but much more so in a future where rising energy costs have the potential to cause recessions. With a recession, we'd have rising unemployment and possibly rising crime rates. It's therefore imperative that we use any community building processes at our disposal in order to boost our social capital.
 
The importance of community cohesion in adapting to the tough times ahead cannot be overstated. In fact, the Portland Oregon Peak Oil Task Force (see above), lists "Strengthen community cohesion" as one of its two main recommendations (the other being energy conservation).