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In October, 2007, the Post Carbon Institute published what is likely the only guidebook for municipalities who intend on instituting measures to deal with an energy constrained future. So I ordered a copy, read it, and was quite impressed (click below for more info).
Accordingly, I decided to apply to present a copy to Red Deer City Council. It, and the statement below, were dropped off at Administrative Services on November 13th.
The full text of the council presentation is given below:
Your Worship [correct terminology to be used in council chambers], I would like to present Council with this book, entitled Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty. To my knowledge, it is the only guidebook available which discusses the actions that municipalities can take to prepare for a future in which oil and natural gas supplies are constrained. It also contains a fairly detailed section on how to establish a peak oil task force.
As the title implies, the book also looks at responses to "climate uncertainty". This is expected, since proactive responses to both climate change and fossil fuel shortages will be similar.
The book is both thorough and concise. I would, in particular, direct Council's attention to the Executive Summary and the first two sections in the Appendix. I would also like to emphasize the last of the book's five principles for transitioning into sustainable long-range planning. The fifth principle is building community cohesion. As the author states (p. 66), this principle is not only "the most important" one, it is also "the least expensive" one to accomplish. Community cohesion may not sound very lofty, but it will be vitally important in a world that will be increasingly subject to economic upheaval (due to factors associated not only with energy costs and climate change, but also the potential financial meltdown emanating from the United States).
More and more, the news is starting to show our vulnerabilities. Crude oil, at $90 to $100 a barrel, largely reflects the underlying certainties of supply and demand of a finite commodity. North American natural gas is also starting to demonstrate this. U.S. News and World Report is forecasting a 6% to 7% price rise this winter, and our own National Energy Board is forecasting a 15% production drop in the next three years. According to AJM Petroleum Consultants (Calgary), this situation will only become more dire in subsequent years. What this will do to the production of the tar sands, which is wholly dependant on cheap natural gas, is anybody's guess. What this will do to our home heating bills is even more uncertain.
We cannot wait to be proactive. As the recent Hirsch Report from the U.S. Department of Energy states, ameliorative actions must start a decade or two in advance of a production peak to have a good degree of effectiveness. Canada's conventional natural gas production peak occurred in 2001. Canada's conventional oil production peak occurred in 1973. The tar sands, coal bed methane and arctic fuel sources are vast, but they have much lower EROEI (energy return on energy investment) rates, as well as significantly larger negative market externalities associated with them. We simply cannot afford to view them as panaceas or magic bullets. If we do insist on continuing along the path of the status quo, our children and grandchildren will surely remember our choices at this critical time.
Accordingly, I would implore Council to: a) make a resolution on this issue, and b) facilitate the formation of task force that will investigate the ways in which Red Deer is vulnerable to an uncertain energy future. The Post Carbon Cities guidebook provides invaluable advice and examples relating to these matters.
Thank-you, Your Worship.
At this point, I haven't heard back from anyone.
This page will be updated within 24 hours of any changes.
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